What are the odds of a nuclear war happening this century? And how close have we been to nuclear war in the past? Few academics focus on the probability of nuclear war, but many leading voices like former US Secretary of Defense, William Perry, argue that the threat of nuclear conflict is growing.
On this month’s podcast, Ariel spoke with Seth Baum and Robert de Neufville from the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI), who recently coauthored a report titled A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War. The report examines 60 historical incidents that could have escalated to nuclear war and presents a model for determining the odds are that we could have some type of nuclear war in the future.
Topics discussed in this episode include:
- the most hair-raising nuclear close calls in history
- whether we face a greater risk from accidental or intentional nuclear war
- China’s secrecy vs the United States’ transparency about nuclear weapons
- Robert’s first-hand experience with the false missile alert in Hawaii
- and how researchers can help us understand nuclear war and craft better policy
Links you might be interested in after listening to the podcast:
- A Model for the Impacts of Nuclear War
- Some actions you can take to reduce the risk of nuclear weapons
- The cost of nuclear weapons: what do we miss out on to upgrade the arsenal?
You can listen to this podcast above or read the transcript.