Author: Ariel Conn

Evaluating Member State Acceptance of Blockchain for Nuclear Safeguards

Evaluating Member State Acceptance of Blockchain for Nuclear Safeguards

Sarah Frazar, Cindy Vestergaard, Benjamin Loehrke, and Luisa Kenausis | December 2019

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Distributed ledger technology (DLT)–widely referred to as blockchain technology–has the potential to improve operational efficiencies, data security, and confidentiality of nuclear safeguards information. Previous studies have explored these potential capabilities. Yet, as with any new technology involved in nuclear safeguards, there may be technical, legal, or political barriers that might hinder any deployment of DLT systems for safeguards applications.

The Stanley Center for Peace and Security, the Stimson Center, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) coorganized a two-day workshop focusing on understanding those nontechnical factors that may hinder–or motivate–stakeholder acceptance of DLT systems. The workshop included participants from IAEA member states, nuclear operators, state authorities, national missions, blockchain companies, research institutions, and international organizations.

This report summarizes observations and key findings from that workshop. It aims to inform member states and the IAEA about the challenges and opportunities associated with deploying DLT for safeguards purposes. It draws on survey data on how participant perspectives shifted during the workshop. It also explores potential user requirements that should be considered if stakeholders decide to move forward with designing a DLT for safeguards verification and analysis.

Key Findings

  • DLT presents an evolution in computer science while offering new functionalities for safeguards.
  • DLT acceptance will depend, in part, on educating member states about how the technology works. Participants’ views of DLT’s ability to improve operational efficiencies, data security, and confidentiality of safeguards data improved at all levels (operator, state, and IAEA) through the workshop. Education with member states will be particularly important as DLT continues to evolve.
  • DLT offers something above and beyond existing information management systems at the IAEA (e.g., interoperability among systems, frontloading inspection efforts) without replacing the important regulatory function of performing physical verification of nuclear inventories.
  • DLT platforms would not change what safeguards information is reported or undermine the extent to which it is protected from manipulation or theft, two of the most politically charged issues for the international safeguards community.
  • The IAEA—with its limited budget and limited mandate on technology research—is not best positioned to drive investment in DLT systems for safeguards. Although interest among workshop participants in having operators invest in DLT research was relatively low, 76 percent of participants indicated that state authorities should lead the way, possibly because it would be cheaper, less political, and more “exploratory” if a state takes the first leap.
  • While stakeholders perceived legal requirements for adoption to be manageable, political challenges at the IAEA were likely to hinder the technology’s deployment.

While the report explores user requirements for using DLT for safeguards purposes, such applications would need to be tested and validated through prototypes for specific use cases. Lessons from those prototypes can advance the debate about the utility and desirability of using DLT for safeguards purposes.

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The Militarization of Artificial Intelligence

The Militarization of Artificial Intelligence

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Revolutionary technologies hold much promise for humanity. When taken up for military uses, they can affect international peace and security. The challenge is to build understanding among stakeholders about a technology and develop responsive solutions to mitigate risks.

That’s where we might be today with military applications of artificial intelligence (AI).

Militaries are developing systems that use AI for missions ranging from logistics, to decision support, command and control, or even lethal force. Those capabilities seem to be advancing faster than discussions about what the risks might be – including if certain applications could raise safety concerns, stoke arms racing dynamics, or remove breakers to the outbreak of nuclear war.

The Stanley Center, the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, and the Stimson Center partnered in a workshop and series of papers to facilitate such a discussion among stakeholders. The workshop, held in August 2019 at UN Headquarters, involved experts from member states, industry, academia, and research institutions. These papers capture that conversation. They share assessments of the topic from US, Chinese, and Russian perspectives. In publishing them, we aim to help expand this dialogue to include more stakeholders.

Multistakeholder Perspectives on the Potential Benefits, Risks, and Governance Options for Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence
Melanie W. Sisson
While AI has the potential to contribute to the well-being of individuals and communities, integration of such systems into national militaries could also disrupt international peace and security.

Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, and Strategic Stability
Jennifer Spindel
The problem of training an AI system in the nuclear realm can be illustrated by looking at near-launch decisions made by humans.

Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: Potential Risks to International Peace and Security – A US Perspective
Paul Scharre
While the introduction of AI will likely dramatically change the machines used in war, its most profound applications may be in information processing and command and control.

Artificial Intelligence and Its Military Implications – A Chinese Perspective
China Arms Control and Disarmament Association
When autonomous weapon systems and AI are employed in warfare, the consequences cannot be overestimated. A legal framework to govern the military use of AI is urgently needed.

Militarization of AI – A Russian Perspective
Vadim Kozyulin
We may be approaching a moment when defense decisions will be increasingly delegated to AI, since limited human capabilities simply will not allow enough time for leadership to deliberate.

Download the full report.

Stanley Center on Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Weapons

To build a safer world that avoids the use of nuclear weapons, the Stanley Center works with diverse stakeholders to develop governance solutions that take advantage of beneficial new technologies—and mitigate their potential risks.

We envision a world where the global community effectively limits the spread and avoids the further use of nuclear weapons.

This vision depends on an efficient and effective constellation of institutions, rules, regimes, and norms. While these approaches remain vital, we must acknowledge that nuclear governance stakeholders today face new, significant challenges as technology development accelerates.

Global efforts to stay apprised of and responsive to the implications of emerging technologies are essential. We must also look for opportunities to take advantage of disruptive technologies. And we must seek to understand and account for potential risks.

Learn more about all of the nuclear efforts at the Stanley Center for Peace and Security.

Stanley Center Publications

Stanley Center Publications

Stanley Center Publications

Good policy is rooted in dialogue. All Stanley Center publications are informed by collaborations and conversations across countries, cultures, and sectors.

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Nuclear Policy Takes a Deep Dive Into Blockchain

Nuclear Policy Takes a Deep Dive Into Blockchain

Technology Could Ease Information Sharing Among Distrustful Parties

Last year, in a phone conversation about the costs and benefits of blockchain architecture, a source said to me with slight exasperation in his voice, “You know, you don’t need a blockchain to build a swimming pool.” It was meant to be a facetious commentary on the state of the industry. That was spring 2017, and blockchains, or at least the word blockchain, were being slapped on everything.

IBM and Maersk had just built their own blockchain to track international shipments. JP Morgan was deep in a project to issue financial instruments on a blockchain. Before you knew it Disney, Ford Motor Company, Toyota, Anheuser Busch, and even Kodak (yes, the company that makes your film) claimed to be squeezing magic from the blockchain. In blogs and think pieces, writers predicted that blockchain technology would transform artificial intelligence, health care, publishing, and the electrical grid.

Much less, however, was being written about what a blockchain is and how it works. The fact is that blockchain technology is not a magic bullet. Rather, it achieves one very specific thing: coordinating the sharing of data between mistrustful parties in the absence of a central authority. Now that we have this “trust machine,” as some have called it, people are naturally looking for places to apply it, and they are narrowing in on those systems where trust has traditionally been an issue.

For this reason, blockchain has recently become a buzzword in the realm of nuclear policy. “No one trusts each other in nuclear diplomacy,” says Cindy Vestergaard, director of the Nuclear Safeguards Program at the Stimson Center, a policy research group in Washington, DC. “This is, of course, why we have the treaties that we have.”

We have treaties, export laws, and international agencies that safeguard the activity of states in possession of nuclear material. And soon we may have blockchains.

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Shadows and Ashes: The Perils of Nuclear Weapons

Shadows and Ashes: The Perils of Nuclear Weapons

From the curators remarks: The traveling exhibition from Princeton University, “Shadows and Ashes: The Peril of Nuclear Weapons,” investigates the consequences of nuclear weapons in the technical and emotive senses. This exhibit of art and science examines the role of nuclear weapons in our society and reflects on their results. By combining artwork and scientific information, it opens conversations on the practical and the philosophical implications of humans’ continued efforts to create and to dismantle nuclear weapons. Complex problems are by definition interdisciplinary, and they require interdisciplinary solutions.

Podcast: Press the Button

Press the Button

An engaging podcast on nuclear policy and national security, Press the Button is co-hosted by defense experts Tom Collina and Michelle Dover of Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation. This weekly podcast features top officials and experts discussing the latest developments on Iran, North Korea, nuclear weapons, military budgets and foreign policy. Press the Button offers diverse views on one of the most important issues of our time: preventing nuclear war. A new episode of Press the Button is available every Tuesday.

Press the Button is presented in 2 segments:

  • Early Warning — a round-up of the most pressing nuclear news in 7 minutes, roughly the same amount of time the US president has to authorize a nuclear weapons launch in the event of an incoming attack on the United States.
  • The Interview — Tom and Michelle sit down with prominent thinkers, legislators, activists, and grantees working on nuclear weapons issues for a short, illuminating conversation.

We also have an occasional “In the Silo,” a close-up look at key security issues and events with field recordings, music, media clips, and narration.

Russia

Russia

Great headway has been made since the end of the Cold War in shrinking the Russian and US nuclear arsenals. But between them, the United States and Russia still have more than 14,000 nuclear weapons — over 93% of the world’s stockpile. More than three thousand of them remain on high alert, meaning they can be launched in a matter of minutes.

Reducing these nuclear stockpiles help increase global stability, build the international non-proliferation regime and reduce the chances that nuclear materials will fall into the hands of terrorists. Instead, Russia and the United States are now on the brink of a new arms race to rebuild their nuclear arsenals.

Latest News and Analysis on Russia and Nuclear Weapons

North Korea

North Korea

Experts estimate that North Korea may have enough plutonium and highly enriched uranium for 20 to 25 nuclear weapons, a tiny amount compared to nations like China, the United States or Russia. But the crisis with North Korea presents one of the greatest global security threats today. And the crisis is only getting worse as Pyongyang races to develop its ability to strike targets farther and farther away.

Verbal threats and other provocations between the North and the US have stoked this growing fire, bringing us to the brink of war in mid 2017. North Korea has developed an ICBM capable of reaching the United States and reportedly has a miniaturized nuclear warhead to match. If diplomatic action isn’t taken soon, it may be only a matter of time before a devastating regional war breaks out in the region. Threatening military action in the region  will almost certainly fail, but more ominously will likely result in one or more of three outcomes, all of them bad: accidental war or military miscalculation, weapons-grade plutonium or uranium secreted out of North Korea, and Pyongyang increasing its leverage by continuing to produce fissile material. Ploughshares Fund and its grantees are committed to preventing a humanitarian catastrophe and finding a peaceful resolution to the North Korea crisis.

Latest News and Analysis on Nuclear Weapons in North Korea

The New Nuclear Arms Race

The New Arms Race

Nuclear weapons do nothing to protect us from 21st century threats. Yet the US government is planning to spend over $2 trillion during the next 30 years to rebuild its arsenal – plans that could push Russia, China and other countries to build even more nuclear weapons. In short, the world is on the brink of a new nuclear arms race that will only accelerate if current plans stay on track. 

Every dollar spent on re-building our arsenal is a dollar less for our true defense needs. We need to end wasteful nuclear programs and to realign our spending priorities with today’s threats.

Latest News and Analysis on the New Nuclear Arms Race